Keys to the Game: How the Raiders can grind out a crucial AFC West road win

Sep 18, 2026 at 02:30 PM

NFL.com Analyst

NFL Media's Bucky Brooks analyzes three things the Silver and Black need to do in order to defeat their AFC West foe Sunday.

Do simple better

Winning in the NFL often comes down to the turnover battle and big-play competition. Despite all of the other statistics coaches cite at the podium at their weekly press conferences, games frequently come down to which team dominates in those categories. The turnover battle, in particular, is the biggest deciding factor in games: teams that win the turnover margin win about 78% of their games, according to a Harvard study conducted in 2025. Teams with a plus-one turnover differential win 69.4% of games, while plus-two win 82.3% of games and plus-three win 91.4% of possible games.

After the Chargers suffered a Week 1 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals, partly because of their minus-two turnover differential (excluding the blocked punt and three turnover downs), the Raiders could notch their second win by taking care of the ball against a reckless squad that turns it over frequently. If Kirk Cousins and Co. can avoid the big mistake that gives the Chargers an extra possession and points or prime field position, the Raiders can wait for their division rival to implode with a critical error that flips the game's momentum.

While winning the turnover battle matters, the Raiders must also win the big-play competition to walk out of SoFi Stadium with a win. Big plays, or "explosives," are runs of at least 10 yards and passes of 20 yards or more. The explosive plays the offense produces, and the defense allows, will determine the game's outcome.

Last week, the Chargers gave up five big plays, leading directly to 16 points, while producing six big plays that resulted in 14 points. Despite generating more explosive plays, turnovers and failed fourth-down conversions (turnover on downs) negated their big-play advantage and gift-wrapped the win to their opponents.

Against Miami, the Raiders tallied five explosive plays (four runs of at least 10 yards and one 20-yard-plus pass play) that led directly to 27 points. The offense scored on every drive featuring a big play, confirming the correlation between big plays and points in the NFL. Although the defense surrendered six big plays (two 10-yard-plus runs and four 20-yard-plus passes) and 13 points off the explosives, the Raiders defense made fewer egregious errors than their opponent and earned the win.

Given the impact of turnovers and big plays, the Raiders must protect the ball and limit the explosives on defense. If the Raiders can avoid giving the Chargers extra possessions, prime field position and points on their miscues, the Silver and Black can go on the road and walk out a winner against a bitter division rival.

Grind it out

It's no secret that Klint Kubiak wants to run the football to control the clock and game tempo. The offensive wizard has built an offense with the talent to use those tactics to win at home or on the road.

The grind-it-out strategy is the perfect approach against a Chargers team that surrendered 119 rushing yards to the Arizona Cardinals, while allowing the visitors to control the ball for 37:31 of game action. Although the Cardinals mixed in some safe, high-percentage passes to complement their downhill running game, Mike LaFleur designed the game plan to keep the offense in manageable down-and-distance situations while pounding away at a defense that seemed to wear down in the fourth quarter.

The Raiders should be able to rely on Cousins' experience and efficiency to run a conservative, complementary passing game that supports a dominant rushing attack led by Ashton Jeanty. The second-year pro rumbled for 102 yards on 23 attempts in Week 1 on an assortment of zone-based runs that showcased his exceptional vision, balance and body control. With Mike Washington in the bullpen as a rugged, change-of-pace back, the Raiders can pummel the Chargers with a devastating running game that chews up yardage and the clock for 60 minutes.

With Justin Herbert forced to sit on the sidelines and watch the Raiders shorten the game with a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust strategy that reduces each team's total possessions, the Silver and Black can transform the game into an ugly, heavyweight fight that ends in a late-round knockout on a series of body blows.

Take away Omarion Hampton

The Chargers might have a top-five quarterback in Herbert, but they want to alleviate some of the pressure on his shoulders to carry the offense by leaning on the running game.

Hampton has the potential to develop into an elite RB1, with his combination of size, speed and power creating problems for defenses on off-tackle runs. Despite rushing for just 42 yards on 12 carries in the season opener, the second-year RB should be the focal point of the offense with Ladd McConkey hampered with a rib injury. The Chargers WR1 is the only threat on the perimeter who could command double coverage in pivotal moments.

Without needing to worry about a game breaker on the perimeter, the Raiders should turn their attention to stopping Hampton with loaded boxes to force the Chargers into a one-dimensional approach that exposes their lack of playmakers around Herbert. If Hampton is bottled up early and the running game is a non-factor, the Chargers will struggle moving the ball consistently against a new and improved pass rush that features more explosive pass rushers beside Maxx Crosby. The Raiders' ability to neutralize No. 8 could determine whether the Silver and Black will chalk up an impressive road win in Week 2.