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Pick Six: A stellar showing from the defense gives Raiders their best chance to end Broncos' nine-game winning streak

Close calls

This might be an unfair evaluation of a team riding a nine-game winning streak, but it seems the Denver Broncos have been getting through their season by the skin of their teeth.

The Broncos lead the NFL in one-score wins (eight), game-winning field goals (four) and are tied for most fourth-quarter comebacks (five). The Raiders have fallen victim as one of their eight one-score wins, with a 10-7 loss in Week 10 at Mile High Stadium.

Does this make the Broncos a clutch team or a lucky team? It honestly doesn't matter as they sit at first place in the AFC West with a 10-2 overall record.

"We have a lot of respect for their team," Pete Carroll said Wednesday. "Their team has done some remarkable things this year. They've had remarkable games, comebacks and finishes and all that kind of thing that we really respect. So, we know we're up against a really tough opponent, but yet we did match up all right. And so, we're looking forward to see if we can take the next step."

Preparing for Broncos QB1

The Broncos have stacked up wins in spite of quarterback Bo Nix statistically regressing over the last month.

In Denver's first eight games, Nix completed 62.8 percent of his passes with a 15:5 touchdown to interception ratio and 16.1 drop back EPA, per Next Gen Stats. In his last four games, those numbers have dwindled, recording a 4:4 touchdown to interception ratio, completing less than 60 percent of his passes and earning a -3.5 drop back EPA.

Taking this into consideration, the Raiders' best chance to win this game starts with altering Nix's level of play. In Week 10, the Raiders defense limited the Broncos' signal-caller to a season-low 150 passing yards and Kyu Blu Kelly intercepted him twice. But remember the Broncos' ability to pull out wins late in games? Nix has a 90.4 passer rating and nine total touchdowns in the fourth quarter or overtime this season.

"[S]o impressed with the process that they've used with the quarterback,"said defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. "And again, Coach [Sean] Payton is one of the best in the business, playcalling. ... I think it's a combination of the player again but also being led by the coach in terms of the playcalling. Some of those fourth-quarter playcall selections and the dilemmas and the predicaments they place the defense in based on what they've seen, he's one of the best in the business to do it."

Setting the edge

The Raiders defense will take everything they can get from Maxx Crosby this Sunday.

Per Next Gen Stats, No. 98 leads all edge rushers in run stops (38) and run stuffs (21). His 38 run stops are tied for second-most in the NGS era (since 2016), with the only higher mark through Week 13 coming from his 2022 season (42). His 21 run stuffs are also the most through Week 13 among all NFL defenders in the NGS era.

Run defense should be at the forefront for the Raiders, a week removed from surrendering 192 yards on the ground to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Silver and Black held Denver to 3.1 yards per carry back in Week 10.

While Crosby missed two days of practice with a knee injury, Carroll confirmed he still expects him to play and Crosby was given a questionable game status on the team's injury report.

Tre Day

Tre Tucker seemingly has an edge over a dominant Broncos passing defense.

The receiver has 207 career receiving yards against the Broncos, his most against any team. Since he entered the league in 2023, that's the sixth-most receiving yards against the franchise. Tucker has been called upon to play a bigger role within the offense this season, and has delivered with a career-high 550 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

"Tre Tucker is so steady," Carroll said. "Every day, everything that we do, he just gives everything he's got. He's so fast that it always shows up on the practice film. Geno's always hunting him up whenever he can. He doesn't say a lot. He's not a guy that's going to try to holler at other guys. He just does the work. And so, he does affect other people. He is a leader in that regard just because his work habits are so consistent, it's like as good as anybody on our team."

While history has been favorable for Tucker, it doesn't erase the fact that the Broncos defense has allowed the fewest receiving touchdowns to wideouts (four) and is tied for the most pass deflections (74) on the season.

Injury status

The Raiders will be missing a couple pass catchers as Michael Mayer (ankle) and Dont'e Thornton Jr. (concussion) have been ruled out. Rookie receiver Jack Bech and tight ends Ian Thomas and Carter Runyon are probable to see increased usage as the next men up.

Offensive lineman Jordan Meredith is expected to suit up after missing Week 13 with an ankle injury. While he's on pace to start, it's undetermined if he'll line back up at center or guard.

Against the odds

Since taking over as the Broncos head coach, Sean Payton has racked up a 3-2 record against the Raiders.

If the Raiders lose to Broncos, this will be second time in franchise history they were swept by the Broncos and Chargers in back to back seasons. This would also be the first time the Raiders were swept by the Broncos in back-to-back seasons since 2014.

As the Raiders prepare to host the Denver Broncos at Allegiant Stadium, view past matchups of the Silver and Black hosting their division rival.

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